Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
