Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
